Where to now for Brexit?
The Swings and Roundabouts
After a period of relative silence on the topic, Brexit has quickly become a hot conversation topic once more in recent weeks as Brexit talks begin to ramp up. Despite the constant chatter, however, there have been no official announcements or updates on what we can expect from a final Brexit decision. Naturally, this has caused an atmosphere of concern and uncertainty, particularly for our own minute island as questions about border issues, and difficulties in trade swarm around us and we remain uncertain about our place in all of this. As we have discussed recently however, many Irish companies appear to be thriving in this uncertainty and beginning the process of protecting their business against any potential fallout. Something we have learned from this continued confusion is that Irish companies show great resilience in the face of adversity and have attempted to learn the lessons enforced by the economic downturn.
Recently, there have been growing concerns about the impact Brexit could have on our already troubled housing sector. We have spoken at length in the past about the housing sector as rents continue to rise and many are being elbowed out of any attempts at gaining a foothold on the property ladder. It was announced this week that the Economic, Social and Research Institute (ESRI) believe that the country should make itself ready for Brexit to have an effect on housing, as they expect private sector construction to drop, encouraging the Government to invest more in social housing. It is also believed that rent increases will continue to spiral, leaving many more families in need of support. As well as the ESRI, the Nevin Economic Research Institute feels that housing issues will fluctuate massively following Brexit and that demand will reach an all-time high. It was reported this week that both bodies will present TDs with their findings on November 20th.
Head of Economics with the ESRI, Kieran McQuinn has stated that the Housing Assistance Payment may become the main income support for private renters in the wake of Brexit:
“If income and employment growth are slower than anticipated due to Brexit, the numbers of families that qualify for HAP over the coming years will likely be higher than currently expected,”
Mr McQuinn also believes that demand may decrease but that this may not have the expected positive implications. Meanwhile, the ERSI have highlighted that mortgage arrears remain an issue in Ireland, and that following Brexit, these arrears may continue to increase.
There is some mild good news on the horizon for prospective buyers, however as Mr McQuinn of ERSI has stated that Brexit may have the effect of slowing the increase of mortgage interests rates, which would in turn finally see some levels of affordability return to the Irish housing market.
Should you have any concerns, queries or require further information on these or any other business and financial matters please don’t hesitate to contact us we are always available to help.
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~ DCA PARTNERS, DECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY