As we open up, what is the Economic Outlook?
There are a great many ways in which the Covid-19 emergency has affected the world we now live in. Our day-to-day lives have been irrevocably changed and everything from our daily habits to how we view and manage our mental wellbeing will likely be different going forward. Something which has been a concern for both business owners and employees is the notion of what state the economy will be in following this emergency, on both an Irish and a global scale. Today we will be taking some time to focus on the current world economic outlook following the recent World Economic Outlook press briefing this month and to share some of the current findings with all of our clients and friends.
The IMF has said that: “We are now projecting a stronger recovery for the global economy compared with our January forecast, with growth projected to be 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022 after an estimated historic contraction of -3.3% in 2020.”
Which, despite some obvious issues in the coming months, and the uncertainty of these projections, is a positive outlook to look forward to, from 2022 onward. It is projected that some jobs lost in the pandemic will not be retrieved and this is likely to change the landscape of the global workforce going forward.
Chief Economist and Research Director Gina Gopinath has given some additional hope for the global economic outlook following on from the Covid-19 pandemic, stating that “even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community, hundreds and millions of people are being vaccinated and this is expected to power recoveries in many countries later this year.”
The idea of ‘secular stagnation’ is one that is important to bear in mind at the moment as economies have found themselves stalling in the midst of global lockdowns. This is a period of little or no economic growth, which is something we have experienced in recent months. Harvard Professor Lawrence Summers suggested in 2013 that these periods assisted in inflation dropping below 2% in Europe, the UK and the US. It can be argued that previous periods of secular stagnation have paved the way for this current emergency to be financially navigated with a positive slant, and for modern economies to come out of this period in a positive light.
Naturally, once global lockdowns begin to lift, economic activity will begin to massively improve but it remains to be seen how impacted the global economy will be by the previous year of emergency. Now is a time to take a longer-term view of the economy and to look forward to a rapid recovery for both our local and the global economy, with all involved keen to avoid another massive financial crisis. The economic rebound from Covid-19 is expected to be strong, with different countries naturally at different stages of their recovery and the UK expected to largely lead this recovery. These projections are naturally reliant on the virus itself as the economy is likely to follow the lead of the virus in that continued vaccine success will propel economic growth, while a continued pandemic and increased variants would slow the economic recovery significantly.
We hope that this information has been useful for you and as always, please don’t hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA where we remain open and ready to help.