Posts

The Housing Market – What’s Next?

The housing crisis in Ireland is something about which we have spoken at length in the past. Between the mortgage rules and rising cost of rent excluding many from the market and the increasing cost of buying in general, this area has become quite the minefield in recent terms for anyone who wasn’t lucky enough to secure their house before prices began to climb. This week, it was announced that house prices in certain areas had dropped slightly for the first time in an age. The fact that this led to a giant exhale of relief is quite telling of the current market, as such a small event sparks a small level of hope for those currently saving to meet the lending rules. It seems from recent reports that prospective buyers have grown tired of being excluded from the narrative.

It was reported this week following a Sunday Independent opinion poll that almost three quarters of people currently saving for a mortgage believe the Central Banks mortgage lending rules to be incredibly unfair. This is a marked rise of 19% from last year’s findings and shows an atmosphere of dissatisfaction with the status quo in the housing market. It was also found that as few as 5% of those saving feel that the lending rules are fair. The study also found that more people are now saving for a mortgage than last year. Almost half of those surveyed stated that they didn’t feel the banks are doing enough to assist people in gaining a mortgage.

There was also a fairly strong belief revealed through this study that the housing market may be headed for another crash in the coming years with over half of those currently saving believing that this will be the future for the Irish housing market. This believe naturally creates discord among savers about whether or not now is a good time to buy, with 43% believing that now is the right time to buy, and 39% believing that now is not the right time to purchase a house. As you can see there is not much between the two camps given their utterly opposing views. Perhaps this discord is the reason why there has been a slight drop off in house sales this year, with the CRO (Central Statistics Office) reporting that there has been a drop of almost 5% in the first half of this year outside of the Dublin area.

While nothing is certain, particularly during these uncertain times as Brexit continues to loom large above us, there are certainly signs of a downturn in the housing market in the next couple of years as many people struggle to get a foothold on the property ladder.

Should you have any concerns, queries or require further information on these or any other business and financial matters please don’t hesitate to contact us we are always available to help.

– – – – –

DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY

Knock Knock Knocking on Overpriced Doors

We have spoken many times in recent years about the difficulties faced by prospective home owners, whether they be first time buyers or otherwise. The mortgage rules currently in place in Ireland can no longer truly be called ‘new’, and are unlikely to be changed drastically but continue to place heavy restrictions on prospective buyers. Recent reports suggest that it may in fact be keeping many prospective buyers off the property ladder permanently, if not delaying the process by as much as a decade.

A large part of the issue seems to exist independently from the mortgage rules, while house prices have risen exponentially in recent years (and are forecast to continue to do so for at least three more years with the possibility of reaching a housing bubble due to lack of supply to meet demand), the cost of renting has followed suit, meaning that many prospective buyers find it increasingly difficult to save the required 10% deposit due to both rental costs and the overall cost of the house they wish to purchase placing increased pressure on the hopeful buyer. A recent report by Threshold has found that of those surveyed, less than a third are happy to be renting. 71% of those surveyed are currently renting due to not being able to afford a mortgage in the current market. Similarly, it was found that 96% of tenants have found it incredibly difficult to find appropriate and affordable rental accommodation due to the increasing costs which often see families spending between one third and one half of their take home pay on rent. Many tenants have been renting for in excess of five years due to the lack of other options available to them.

Chair of Threshold Dr. Aideen Hayden has been quoted as saying the following about the current rental crisis:

“A home is not just where you live, it is a place of sanctuary, offering protection from the stresses and strains of daily living. The current insecurity for tenants in the private rented sector means that they can’t look ahead and plan, they can’t put down roots.”

Whilst demand for housing strongly outweighs supply currently, it has recently been speculated by Savills that the trend in supply is turning upwards which may lead to a more balanced market by 2021, meaning that there is still space for some good news in the future for prospective buyers.

Should you require any assistance or guidance on any business or personal finance matters, please do not hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA where we are always happy to help.

Taxation of Vacant Lots

The vacant site register has become a hot topic of conversation in recent months as many of Ireland’s development firms have begun to fight back against their inclusion on the list. This register was introduced in 2017 in an attempt to deter the hoarding of land in areas that could be utilised for housing development. As we have spoken about recently, housing supply is running low as prices continue to soar so naturally the hoarding of land has become somewhat of a bone of contention.

One issue that development companies are fighting here is the financial cost. Once added to the register, the local council can issue levies of up to 3% of the site’s market value to the owner. The owner will then have 28 days to appeal their inclusion on the list, and failing this, appeal to An Bord Pleanála. This can of course add up to quite significant levies being applied, leading to a number of development firms currently fighting against their local councils to appeal their inclusion on the register including housebuilding giant Glenveagh Properties and Ziggurat, a big name in the student housing business.

According to studies completed by Fora, 39 cases have been appealed to the Board since the beginning of 2017, with 11 having come to an official decision, and only 3 being granted their wish of being removed from the list while 8 were decided to be kept on. Two of the overturned cases related to land owned by the Office of Public Works wherein it was decided that residential properties would not be an agreeable outcome for these sites.

Whilst the effectiveness has been called into question with so few councils taking the land hoarding situation seriously and what was described by Goodbody economist Dermot O’Leary as a “lack of urgency” it seems that there is still room for improvement. Recently, The Minister for Finance has appointed international economic consultancy firm Indecon to complete an independent review of the issue and begin to inform a new government policy in this area. There is currently a period of public consultation until June 29th, so be sure to make your voice heard if you have something to add, or other concerns regarding the taxation of vacant property. This is also an opportunity to suggest alternative options, should you have any in mind.

With housing in such short supply and with these issues being at the forefront of the public mind, this is sure to be an ongoing battle and concern. Should you require any help, advice or guidance on any financial or business matters, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with us here at EcovisDCA, where we will be happy to support you in getting your business to the next level.

– – –

DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY

Blowing Up the Housing Bubble

The housing ladder has remained a hot topic of conversation since the economic downturn and subsequent changing of the rules for applying for a mortgage. The conversation doesn’t seem to be going anywhere as the concern of Ireland falling into the housing bubble trap increases as more and more prospective buyers find themselves unable to pay increasing asking prices.

This week it was reported that these increasing house prices do not look likely to slow down in the coming years. Goodbody Stockbrokers have stated in their latest economic report that the average price of a house is set to continue to rise by up to 10% this year followed by another 8% in 2018 meaning an additional 18% cost increase on houses which have already increased massively in price in the previous three years.

The report states that:

“Mortgage approvals, even excluding cash purchases, are in excess of the amount of new supply expected to come to the market, thus house price inflation is expected to remain strong over the forecast period. […]“While supply remains low, demand appears to be running ahead of expectations”.

Existing housing demand is said to be 30,000 per year, and it is reported that it will take another number of years in order for the number or houses built to match up to tahis demand. This lack of balance between supply and demand is what has encouraged this somewhat bleak forecast from Goodbody Stockbrokers, who have also stated that they expect there will be €13.5billion in new mortgage lending in the coming years.

An additional issue with supply and demand is that there are far more prospective homeowners being approved for mortgages than there are houses available, which continues to push prices higher. A recent infographic shows the increasing prices as they continue to grow. Mortgage approvals are being boosted by the Government’s popular help-to-buy scheme but many of those approved will find themselves without a home to buy.

Should you have any queries on home ownership, or any other financial or business matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA, where we will as always be happy to help.

– – – – –

DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY