Posts

Brexit, the first signs of its impact?

Stall the Ball

As we head into the Autumn months, Britain’s planned exit from the European Union in October looms ever larger, and the expected repercussions for Ireland and Irish trade with the United Kingdom remain in question. As we have discussed previously, preparation is key for this massive change as we are sure to see some impact on our shores.

It was suggested this week that we might already be seeing signs of Brexit fears creeping in. This is unsurprising as thus far we have had no definite answers and many time extensions. With a set time now on the table, the situation becomes instantly more real and as a result, we will begin to see fears seep into the world of trade in Ireland.

Despite the fact that latest employment figures show that employment increased by 2% in the 12 months to the end of June. On the surface this might seem like further good news for our continued economic recovery as growth in any area is undoubtedly positive. However, this is the slowest growth in employment we have seen since the beginning of 2013, hinting at the first true sign of Brexit fears among employers. Growth is naturally always a good thing, but here we see a serious slowdown of growth alongside a very small fall in employment figures (a 1% drop) showing that the looming ghost of Brexit is starting to solidify in the minds of Irish employers as a real threat.

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohue has dismissed any notion that Brexit and this slowdown may be connected but interestingly pointed out other areas of the economy which are being affected by Brexit concerns, stating:

“If you look at the half overall in the numbers they show annual employment growth overall of over 40,000 jobs in our country […] They show more people at work than we’ve ever had and indeed they show more people moving to Ireland to work in our economy. So, for all those reasons the trend in quarter two I don’t see reflecting Brexit points for now. […] But I would acknowledge that there is a growing reserve in consumer sentiment and investment point of view regarding the effect that Brexit might have on the economy both now and in the future,”

There are conflicting reports over whether the two can truly be connected as there are currently so many outside forces at play that can affect the Irish economy, but the general consensus is that it is as always something to be wary of and take into account moving forward into an uncertain future.

Should you have any queries or concerns on any business or financial matters please do not hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA where we are always happy to be of service.

– – –

DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY

Is The Economy Overheating?

Too Much of a Good Thing

When emerging blinking from the darkness of an economic crisis, such as the one Ireland experienced in the not so distant past, it becomes important to latch on to the positive steps in the right direction many of which we have spoken about in the past with new funding options being made available as well as a general increase in consumer confidence. Amidst all this good news there have of course arisen some issues such as the exponential rise in house prices and the general cost of living leaving many to question whether or not Ireland’s recovery will ever be felt in the average wallet. It’s important not to get too cocky or confident in the midst of a recovery as we have seen in the past than anything can happen with no notice.

These fears were somewhat verified this week as the Central Bank warned Ireland not to become complacent about recovery. Mark Cassidy, the Central Bank’s director of economics and statistics has warned that despite all signs pointing to continued strong growth and plenty of jobs being created, that there are many factors at play in the background that could possibly leave Ireland at risk of seriously overheating. Overheating refers to when growth begins to overtake ability to meet demand, something that we are already seeing some evidence of in our housing markets. From the possibility of a hard Brexit which we have spoken at length about to the recently discussed changes in international tax practises, there are many reasons to be wary and plenty of issues which threaten to place Ireland in an economically vulnerable state.

The Central Bank have issued several warnings in recent months that the risk of an external crisis causing issues for the Irish economy was high, but recently have announced that the possibility of an internal crisis is on the rise as Ireland begins to overheat. Last week, Central Bank officials postulated that it may be necessary for taxes to be increase in order to cool down our rapidly overheating economy.

The risk remains that if Ireland continues to recover at the same speed and manages to reach its full capacity for growth, it is of course a positive, but unless demand in various sectors begins to increase in conjunction with this, the risk of overheating and creating some form of downturn remains high.

Should you have any queries or require further information on this or any other business or financial matter please don’t hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA’s new head office, where as always we will be delighted to help.

– – – – –

DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY