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current world economic outlook

As we open up, what is the Economic Outlook?

There are a great many ways in which the Covid-19 emergency has affected the world we now live in. Our day-to-day lives have been irrevocably changed and everything from our daily habits to how we view and manage our mental wellbeing will likely be different going forward. Something which has been a concern for both business owners and employees is the notion of what state the economy will be in following this emergency, on both an Irish and a global scale. Today we will be taking some time to focus on the current world economic outlook following the recent World Economic Outlook press briefing this month and to share some of the current findings with all of our clients and friends.

The IMF has said that: “We are now projecting a stronger recovery for the global economy compared with our January forecast, with growth projected to be 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022 after an estimated historic contraction of -3.3% in 2020.”

Which, despite some obvious issues in the coming months, and the uncertainty of these projections, is a positive outlook to look forward to, from 2022 onward. It is projected that some jobs lost in the pandemic will not be retrieved and this is likely to change the landscape of the global workforce going forward.

Chief Economist and Research Director Gina Gopinath has given some additional hope for the global economic outlook following on from the Covid-19 pandemic, stating that “even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community, hundreds and millions of people are being vaccinated and this is expected to power recoveries in many countries later this year.”

The idea of ‘secular stagnation’ is one that is important to bear in mind at the moment as economies have found themselves stalling in the midst of global lockdowns. This is a period of little or no economic growth, which is something we have experienced in recent months. Harvard Professor Lawrence Summers suggested in 2013 that these periods assisted in inflation dropping below 2% in Europe, the UK and the US. It can be argued that previous periods of secular stagnation have paved the way for this current emergency to be financially navigated with a positive slant, and for modern economies to come out of this period in a positive light.

Naturally, once global lockdowns begin to lift, economic activity will begin to massively improve but it remains to be seen how impacted the global economy will be by the previous year of emergency. Now is a time to take a longer-term view of the economy and to look forward to a rapid recovery for both our local and the global economy, with all involved keen to avoid another massive financial crisis. The economic rebound from Covid-19 is expected to be strong, with different countries naturally at different stages of their recovery and the UK expected to largely lead this recovery. These projections are naturally reliant on the virus itself as the economy is likely to follow the lead of the virus in that continued vaccine success will propel economic growth, while a continued pandemic and increased variants would slow the economic recovery significantly.

 

We hope that this information has been useful for you and as always, please don’t hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA where we remain open and ready to help.

Pandemic Unemployment Payment

Covid Restrictions Support Scheme (CRSS)

Payments received by employers :

Payments received under the Covid Restrictions Support Scheme (CRSS) are revenue in nature and will be treated as a reduction of otherwise tax-deductible trading expenses for tax purposes.

Similar to the accounting and tax treatment where the restart grant was used to defray revenue related expenditure, where the CRSS receipts are used to defray expenditure which is revenue in nature like utility bills or insurance costs then it will be taken into account when calculating the amounts chargeable to income tax or corporation tax.

In essence, the payments are taxable income and for accounting purposes, the CRSS receipts will be credited against the expenses incurred thereby leaving the net expense reflected in the accounts which are then allowable as a deduction for income tax or corporation tax purposes.

Therefore the payments received are effectively taxable payments subject to income tax or corporation tax depending on the structure of the entity receiving the payments.

Entities should keep a log of the expenditure which they have discharged from the CRSS receipts which can then be used by the agents to make the appropriate credit entries against the expenditure to arrive at the tax-deductible net figures.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.

Revenue Irish Tax Firm

Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) 

Subsidies received by employers:

The TWSS subsidies received by employers from Revenue are revenue receipts by their nature and accordingly will be treated as a reduction in the wages / salaries related expenditure line item for the accounting period concerned.  The subsidies received reduced the expenditure incurred by employers and therefore these subsidies will reduce the amount of wages and salaries allowable as an expense for tax deduction purposes.

Clawback of PAYE from employees :

The Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) payments by Revenue to employers are treated as part of the employee’s emoluments – ie salary and wages for tax purposes.

The subsidies were not taxed in real-time via the PAYE system however and the amounts received in 2020 by the employees are chargeable to income tax and USC.

The amount of income tax and USC will be reflected on each employee’s preliminary end of year statement for 2020 which is accessible via the PAYE My Account facility for each employee since 15th January 2021.

The employee’s must then complete an income tax return to receive their final statement of liability which will provide the final over or underpayment for the year.

Employees have the option to pay any underpayment in full via My Account or they have the default option of discharging any underpayment arising due to the TWSS subsidies over a four year period commencing in 2022 via a reduction in the annual tax credit entitlement.

As an example – Employee A has a €2,500 income tax underpayment for 2020 This can be discharged as follows;

(1) Employee can make payment of the €2,500 via My Account

or

(2) Revenue will reduce the employees’ tax credits by €625 for the years 2022 to 2025 thereby recouping the underpayment via the PAYE system

Revenue has confirmed that employers may discharge the income tax liabilities of employees without a benefit in kind charge being levied by Revenue. Employers can pay the employee’s liability in one of two ways;

(a) Payment direct to the employee who then must pay the liability

(b) Amend the final payroll submission for 2020 to include additional income tax paid and USC paid that equals the liability shown on the employee’s end of year statement.

The employer will then need to pay the additional amounts that are notified by Revenue in a revised monthly PAYE statement.

For more information visit Revenue.ie or feel free to contact us

Brexit - The Urgent Need To Be Prepared

Brexit – It’s All Customary

It seems so long ago that one of the largest looming threats to Irish business life was the notion of Brexit and the atmosphere of uncertainty that surrounded not knowing what form Brexit was to take. Obviously with the current Covid-19 emergency there are much bigger threats to Irish businesses, but Brexit remains a very real issue that we need to be aware of.

If your business trades directly with the United Kingdom, there will obviously be some changes to your daily business life which it is important to prepare for. From January 1st, 2021, all goods imported into Ireland from Great Britain will be subject customs processes.

As we have discussed previously, one of the most vital ways to prepare for these changes is to register for an Economic Operator Registration Identification (EORI) number, we recommend completing this step ASAP if you have not done it already. This can be done through Revenue’s MyAccount online system.

Once you have your company’s EORI number you must then decide if all customs work will be completed in-house if you feel competent to do so, and have the required software and access to Revenue’s customs systems. If you are not comfortable with completing customs work yourself, you can engage a customs agent to work on your behalf.

We hope that this information has been of use to you and your business, and as always would like you to know that we are here for you and your company at any time should you have any queries.

The EORI – In Advance of Brexit

What’s Your Number?

As you will all know, we have spoken many times over the past year about Britain’s exit from the European Union, the term ‘Brexit’ has been utilised so often by so many people over the past few months that it has almost lost all meaning, with various extensions making the exit seem more like a myth than an impending reality. With so much uncertainty surrounding our position in this puzzle it has been quite difficult to predict where we will stand, with a ‘Hard Brexit’ with Irish borders becoming more and more likely as the months go on. There are a couple of things that we do know for certain, by virtue of the rules surrounding the European Union, today we will be focusing on one such change which will directly affect all companies with trade dealings with the United Kingdom.

Following the eventual Brexit, there will be a new requirement for all Irish companies trading with the UK. From October, any company trading with the UK will need an EORI (Economic Operators Registration and Identification) Number in order to trade. This number is a requirement for all traders who import or export goods into or out of the European Union, the number is valid throughout the EU and is used as a reference number for customs authorities within any EU member state. As the United Kingdom will soon exist outside of the boundaries of the European Union, this number will now be a requirement for all Irish companies trading with the UK.

You can obtain your EORI number online via the Revenue website, and there is also an eLearning tool available regarding the EORI numbers on the European Commission website. If you are not already familiar with this system prior to Brexit, we would suggest making full use of these resources in advance so that you understand the requirement and are prepared well in advance of any changes due to Brexit coming into effect.

In order to utilise the Revenue service to set up your new EORI number you will need the following:

  • Revenue Online log in details.
  • A valid Revenue Online Services (ROS) digital certificate.
  • A registration for customs and excise in ROS (if you do not have this, you will need to register for customs and excise before beginning the EORI process.).

The Revenue Online System will then take you through the rest of the process. Should you have any concerns or queries about any business or financial matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA where we are always happy to be of service.

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DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY

 

Brexit - The Urgent Need To Be Prepared

Where to now for Brexit?

The Swings and Roundabouts

After a period of relative silence on the topic, Brexit has quickly become a hot conversation topic once more in recent weeks as Brexit talks begin to ramp up. Despite the constant chatter, however, there have been no official announcements or updates on what we can expect from a final Brexit decision. Naturally, this has caused an atmosphere of concern and uncertainty, particularly for our own minute island as questions about border issues, and difficulties in trade swarm around us and we remain uncertain about our place in all of this. As we have discussed recently however, many Irish companies appear to be thriving in this uncertainty and beginning the process of protecting their business against any potential fallout. Something we have learned from this continued confusion is that Irish companies show great resilience in the face of adversity and have attempted to learn the lessons enforced by the economic downturn.

Recently, there have been growing concerns about the impact Brexit could have on our already troubled housing sector. We have spoken at length in the past about the housing sector as rents continue to rise and many are being elbowed out of any attempts at gaining a foothold on the property ladder. It was announced this week that the Economic, Social and Research Institute (ESRI) believe that the country should make itself ready for Brexit to have an effect on housing, as they expect private sector construction to drop, encouraging the Government to invest more in social housing. It is also believed that rent increases will continue to spiral, leaving many more families in need of support. As well as the ESRI, the Nevin Economic Research Institute feels that housing issues will fluctuate massively following Brexit and that demand will reach an all-time high. It was reported this week that both bodies will present TDs with their findings on November 20th.

Head of Economics with the ESRI, Kieran McQuinn has stated that the Housing Assistance Payment may become the main income support for private renters in the wake of Brexit:

“If income and employment growth are slower than anticipated due to Brexit, the numbers of families that qualify for HAP over the coming years will likely be higher than currently expected,”

Mr McQuinn also believes that demand may decrease but that this may not have the expected positive implications. Meanwhile, the ERSI have highlighted that mortgage arrears remain an issue in Ireland, and that following Brexit, these arrears may continue to increase.

There is some mild good news on the horizon for prospective buyers, however as Mr McQuinn of ERSI has stated that Brexit may have the effect of slowing the increase of mortgage interests rates, which would in turn finally see some levels of affordability return to the Irish housing market.

Should you have any concerns, queries or require further information on these or any other business and financial matters please don’t hesitate to contact us we are always available to help.

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DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY

Brexit – Still No Clearer

Hope for the Brexit Best

It goes without saying that even those hiding under a rock with no Wi-Fi signal will by now have heard the word ‘Brexit’ by this point, meaning Britain’s highly controversial exit from the European Union. Brexit has proven to be a much more complex issue than it seemed was earlier anticipated and is now an issue fraught with tension and uncertainty for both Britain and our own little island which is often hidden under the safe shadow of its nearest neighbour.

In reports this week it seems that at this point the very notion of Brexit has become a rather messy one, with no parties having a clear understanding of what the final result will actually be. In this environment of uncertainty and as we rely on the UK so heavily for trade routes and business, it has been a cause for much concern in terms of Irish businesses. Terms like ‘Hard Brexit’ and ‘Soft Brexit’ have been thrown around a lot in recent weeks, but what is becoming apparent is that those who voted for Brexit may not be as in control of their destiny as they anticipated and may not have as much power to decide the terms of the departure. The British government continues to attempt to come to an agreement and create a plan which will be beneficial to the majority. As talks continue to fall apart it becomes increasingly clear that Brexit will not affect Britain in isolation, rather it will have a ripple effect across Europe. Even knowing this, it is easy to become tangled in terminology and speculation.

With this atmosphere of fear and uncertainty it came as somewhat of a surprise to hear our own Taoiseach’s assurances that Ireland needn’t be overly concerned as Brexit looms large over Europe. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has made an attempt to quash any lingering Irish fears, stating that Ireland is making contingency plans “in the unlikely event of a no-deal hard Brexit”. This may seem like a very relaxed attitude given the uncertainty surrounding Ireland’s position in this but also points to a new level of prosperity in Irish business and a certainty that we can hold our own in the European Union. There are even some whispers that this could be a very positive move for Irish trade and open us up to more opportunities than were available previously. It has however been suggested that it would be unwise for our Taoiseach to say too much in advance as there is no way of knowing the end result at this time.

This statement also shows a level of commitment to ensuring that no hard borders will spring up between the UK and Ireland which could damage Irish trade. This will be a crucial point of contention in the months ahead. As UK politicians battle to seek an alignment of ideals there is very little we can do on our side rather than take the traditional Irish standpoint of ‘prepare for the worst, hope for the best’.

Should you have any queries or require further information on this or any other business or financial matter please don’t hesitate to contact us here at EcovisDCA’s new head office, where as always we will be delighted to help.

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DCA PARTNERSDECLAN DOLAN & EAMONN GARVEY